prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
85% 7 Jacksonville 24 33.4, 29 Cincinnati 7 15.7
76% 14 Green Bay 49 25.3, 28 Arizona 24 15.5
76% 8 Minnesota 24 29.4, 23 Detroit 17 19.3
75% 20 Carolina 45 33.3, 27 New Orleans 13 24.0
71% 25 Atlanta 34 23.6, 30 San Francisco 29 16.7
64% 17 Dallas 26 21.0, 24 New York Giants 18 16.9
62% 6 Tennessee 47 21.0, 19 Pittsburgh 36 18.0
60% 15 Washington 21 28.7, 16 Miami 10 26.4
58% 13 Tampa Bay 20 15.6, 22 Chicago 6 14.4
58% 2 Oakland 41 23.6, 4 Kansas City 38 22.1
55% 10 Buffalo 31 19.9, 9 Indianapolis 6 18.9
54% 12 New York Jets 19 20.2, 11 Seattle 9 19.5
28% 18 New England 20 12.6, 3 Baltimore 3 19.8
24% 21 San Diego 12 13.7, 5 Denver 6 22.4
13% 26 Philadelphia 38 11.5, 1 St. Louis 31 30.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
5 1.75 2 1.59 6 0.90 2 0.58 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 15 12 1.17
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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