prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
69% 5 Minnesota 27 25.7, 19 Dallas 10 19.0
64% 18 Washington 27 24.9, 23 Detroit 13 20.2
50% 8 Tennessee 22 19.3, 3 Buffalo 16 19.3
35% 20 Miami 20 17.4, 13 Seattle 17 22.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
1 1.99 3 1.01 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 4 3 1.21
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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