prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
73% 1 St. Louis 49 30.9, 6 Minnesota 37 22.7
67% 8 Jacksonville 62 21.5, 18 Miami 7 16.2
61% 10 Tampa Bay 14 19.5, 13 Washington 13 16.9
61% 4 Tennessee 19 28.9, 14 Indianapolis 16 26.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
0 0.00 3 1.59 1 1.38 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 4 4 1.53
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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