prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 53% 1 St. Louis 23 26.4, 2 Tennessee 16 25.8 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 1 1.87 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,num_right/expected): 1 1 1.87 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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