Bassett Football Model
The Bassett football model is a system for ranking the relative strengths
of football teams. A key feature of this model is that it recognizes
that if two teams could play more than once the same team would not
always win (there is an element of chance involved). The system is
based on a simple model of a football game. For a given match-up of
two teams, a number of model games are simulated by a computer and the
average scores and the percentage of times each team wins is computed.
Each week during the football season the best fit of offensive and
defensive strengths is found for each team consistent with the actual
scores. I do include considerations for home field advantage and for
the possibility that teams may score less than expected in a blow-out if
they choose to run out time instead of score more points in the latter
part of a game.
The purpose of this football web page is to provide an unbiased
analysis of the teams: how they compare with each other and what sort
of results to expect from upcoming games. It is not my intention,
however, to encourage gambling with this information. I have purposely
presented the information in a way that will minimize its usefulness in
this regard while still providing useful entertainment, etc.
Comments on how to avoid
the misuse of these web pages for gambling are most welcome.
Enjoy!
Attention: The Bassett Football Model is retiring
Someone has graciously agreed to continue maintaining the NFL forecasts.
For NCAA football, there wll be no new forecasts, results or rankings.
If you are looking for an NCAA alternative I recommend ThePredictionTracker
Another good source of ranking and prediction systems can be found by looking at those listed in the
College Football Ranking Comparasion
web page.
I am also making my model available on GitHub:
NFL Forecast
Links of interest
Please email comments or questions to
bfm@BassettFootball.net