Bassett Football Model

The Bassett football model is a system for ranking the relative strengths of football teams. A key feature of this model is that it recognizes that if two teams could play more than once the same team would not always win (there is an element of chance involved). The system is based on a simple model of a football game. For a given match-up of two teams, a number of model games are simulated by a computer and the average scores and the percentage of times each team wins is computed. Each week during the football season the best fit of offensive and defensive strengths is found for each team consistent with the actual scores. I do include considerations for home field advantage and for the possibility that teams may score less than expected in a blow-out if they choose to run out time instead of score more points in the latter part of a game.

More about the model ...

Questions and answers ...

The purpose of this football web page is to provide an unbiased analysis of the teams: how they compare with each other and what sort of results to expect from upcoming games. It is not my intention, however, to encourage gambling with this information. I have purposely presented the information in a way that will minimize its usefulness in this regard while still providing useful entertainment, etc. Comments on how to avoid the misuse of these web pages for gambling are most welcome.

Enjoy!


Attention: The Bassett Football Model is retiring

Someone has graciously agreed to continue maintaining the NFL forecasts.

For NCAA football, there wll be no new forecasts, results or rankings.

If you are looking for an NCAA alternative I recommend ThePredictionTracker

Another good source of ranking and prediction systems can be found by looking at those listed in the College Football Ranking Comparasion web page.

I am also making my model available on GitHub:


NFL Forecast

8 Oct 2024: Average model rankings (NFL) (average rank over entire season)


Past Seasons


Links of interest


Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net