All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 128 42 31 53 13 0 267
number right: 67 25 22 38 8 0 160
number expected: 73.1 26.9 23.6 45.7 11.9 0.0 181.3
right/expected: 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.83 0.67 0.00 0.88
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 37 20 13 24 5 0 99
number right: 14 11 10 17 3 0 55
number expected: 20.9 13.0 10.1 20.7 4.6 0.0 69.3
right/expected: 0.67 0.84 0.99 0.82 0.66 0.00 0.79
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 52 17 13 16 5 0 103
number right: 32 11 8 10 4 0 65
number expected: 29.9 10.7 9.8 13.8 4.6 0.0 68.8
right/expected: 1.07 1.03 0.82 0.73 0.87 0.00 0.94
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 39 5 5 13 3 0 65
number right: 21 3 4 11 1 0 40
number expected: 22.3 3.2 3.8 11.2 2.8 0.0 43.2
right/expected: 0.94 0.94 1.06 0.98 0.36 0.00 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net