All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 166 52 34 13 2 0 267
number right: 96 32 24 13 2 0 167
number expected: 93.5 33.6 25.4 10.8 1.8 0.0 165.0
right/expected: 1.03 0.95 0.94 1.20 1.10 0.00 1.01
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 56 19 16 5 1 0 97
number right: 33 12 12 5 1 0 63
number expected: 31.4 12.2 12.1 4.1 0.9 0.0 60.7
right/expected: 1.05 0.98 0.99 1.21 1.11 0.00 1.04
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 71 17 10 6 1 0 105
number right: 41 11 8 6 1 0 67
number expected: 40.1 10.9 7.4 5.0 0.9 0.0 64.3
right/expected: 1.02 1.01 1.08 1.21 1.10 0.00 1.04
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 39 16 8 2 0 0 65
number right: 22 9 4 2 0 0 37
number expected: 22.1 10.4 6.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 40.1
right/expected: 1.00 0.86 0.67 1.19 0.00 0.00 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net