2019 NFL Forecast

29 Aug 2020: Average model rankings (NFL) (average rank over entire season)

29 Aug 2020: Current model rankings (NFL) (rank at current week in the season)

--> (rank at final week in the season)

2019 Model Performance:

All games                     forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         28     170      30      39       0       0     267
number right:        16     108      23      28       0       0     175
number expected:   15.2   106.0    22.3    32.6     0.0     0.0   176.1
right/expected:    1.05    1.02    1.03    0.86    0.00    0.00    0.99

Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games                forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         10      56      12      18       0       0      96
number right:         5      37       9      12       0       0      63
number expected:    5.3    35.1     8.9    15.0     0.0     0.0    64.3
right/expected:    0.95    1.06    1.01    0.80    0.00    0.00    0.98

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         13      71       9      13       0       0     106
number right:         7      43       6       8       0       0      64
number expected:    7.2    44.3     6.7    10.9     0.0     0.0    69.1
right/expected:    0.97    0.97    0.89    0.74    0.00    0.00    0.93

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:          5      43       9       8       0       0      65
number right:         4      28       8       8       0       0      48
number expected:    2.7    26.7     6.7     6.7     0.0     0.0    42.7
right/expected:    1.47    1.05    1.20    1.20    0.00    0.00    1.12

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net