All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 28 170 30 39 0 0 267
number right: 16 108 23 28 0 0 175
number expected: 15.2 106.0 22.3 32.6 0.0 0.0 176.1
right/expected: 1.05 1.02 1.03 0.86 0.00 0.00 0.99
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 10 56 12 18 0 0 96
number right: 5 37 9 12 0 0 63
number expected: 5.3 35.1 8.9 15.0 0.0 0.0 64.3
right/expected: 0.95 1.06 1.01 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.98
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 13 71 9 13 0 0 106
number right: 7 43 6 8 0 0 64
number expected: 7.2 44.3 6.7 10.9 0.0 0.0 69.1
right/expected: 0.97 0.97 0.89 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.93
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 5 43 9 8 0 0 65
number right: 4 28 8 8 0 0 48
number expected: 2.7 26.7 6.7 6.7 0.0 0.0 42.7
right/expected: 1.47 1.05 1.20 1.20 0.00 0.00 1.12
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net