All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 53 118 71 23 1 0 266
number right: 26 64 52 18 1 0 161
number expected: 29.4 75.4 53.3 19.0 0.9 0.0 178.0
right/expected: 0.88 0.85 0.98 0.95 1.10 0.00 0.90
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 21 38 26 13 0 0 98
number right: 9 20 19 10 0 0 58
number expected: 11.7 24.3 19.5 10.8 0.0 0.0 66.3
right/expected: 0.77 0.82 0.98 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.88
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 24 50 23 7 0 0 104
number right: 13 28 15 5 0 0 61
number expected: 13.3 31.9 17.3 5.8 0.0 0.0 68.2
right/expected: 0.98 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.00 0.00 0.89
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 8 30 22 3 1 0 64
number right: 4 16 18 3 1 0 42
number expected: 4.5 19.1 16.6 2.5 0.9 0.0 43.6
right/expected: 0.89 0.84 1.09 1.22 1.10 0.00 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net