2005 NFL Forecast

23 Jan 2006: Average model rankings (NFL) (average rank over entire season)

23 Jan 2006: Current model rankings (NFL) (rank at current week in the season)

2005 Model Performance:

All games                     forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         53     125      80       8       0       0     266
number right:        24      80      54       8       0       0     166
number expected:   29.7    80.8    60.2     6.6     0.0     0.0   177.2
right/expected:    0.81    0.99    0.90    1.22    0.00    0.00    0.94

Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games                forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         22      43      30       2       0       0      97
number right:        12      27      21       2       0       0      62
number expected:   12.3    27.7    22.4     1.7     0.0     0.0    64.1
right/expected:    0.98    0.97    0.94    1.20    0.00    0.00    0.97

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         18      48      36       3       0       0     105
number right:         7      33      23       3       0       0      66
number expected:   10.1    31.1    27.2     2.4     0.0     0.0    70.9
right/expected:    0.69    1.06    0.85    1.24    0.00    0.00    0.93

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         13      34      14       3       0       0      64
number right:         5      20      10       3       0       0      38
number expected:    7.3    21.9    10.5     2.5     0.0     0.0    42.2
right/expected:    0.68    0.91    0.95    1.21    0.00    0.00    0.90

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

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