All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 39 165 36 27 0 0 267
number right: 22 101 27 23 0 0 173
number expected: 21.4 103.2 26.7 22.6 0.0 0.0 173.9
right/expected: 1.03 0.98 1.01 1.02 0.00 0.00 1.00
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 16 55 16 10 0 0 97
number right: 9 38 11 9 0 0 67
number expected: 8.6 34.6 11.8 8.4 0.0 0.0 63.4
right/expected: 1.04 1.10 0.93 1.07 0.00 0.00 1.06
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 11 75 8 11 0 0 105
number right: 7 44 6 9 0 0 66
number expected: 6.1 46.8 6.0 9.2 0.0 0.0 68.1
right/expected: 1.15 0.94 1.00 0.98 0.00 0.00 0.97
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 12 35 12 6 0 0 65
number right: 6 19 10 5 0 0 40
number expected: 6.7 21.8 9.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 42.4
right/expected: 0.90 0.87 1.12 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.94
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net