2009 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Bassett Model rankings:

The Stephenson Earned Rank shows what a team has earned from its wins. It ranks by how much better a given team's winning record is when compared against how all other teams would have faired if they had played the same schedule. (Available after the 5th week in the season.) The Power Rankings measure the strength of each team by how well they have played on average, going by point performance. The Current Model Power Rankings are the best indicator of how well a team will play in the future.

9 Jan 2010: Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

9 Jan 2010: Average Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(average power ranking for entire season)

9 Jan 2010: Current Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(power ranking at final week of the season)

2009 Model Performance: 

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        126     247     342     514     180       0    1409
number right:        59     133     233     435     167       0    1027
number expected:   70.4   159.3   259.7   437.9   164.4     0.0  1091.7
right/expected:    0.84    0.83    0.90    0.99    1.02    0.00    0.94

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         81     165     234     333     111       0     924
number right:        40      90     163     277      99       0     669
number expected:   45.5   106.5   177.5   283.4   101.5     0.0   714.3
right/expected:    0.88    0.84    0.92    0.98    0.98    0.00    0.94

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         38      75      93     132      53       0     391
number right:        18      38      58     111      52       0     277
number expected:   21.1    48.2    70.7   112.5    48.4     0.0   300.9
right/expected:    0.85    0.79    0.82    0.99    1.08    0.00    0.92

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:          7       7      15      49      16       0      94
number right:         1       5      12      47      16       0      81
number expected:    3.8     4.6    11.5    42.1    14.6     0.0    76.5
right/expected:    0.27    1.10    1.05    1.12    1.09    0.00    1.06

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net