All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 141 103 14 8 0 0 266
number right: 79 61 9 6 0 0 155
number expected: 77.4 65.4 10.7 6.7 0.0 0.0 160.2
right/expected: 1.02 0.93 0.84 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.97
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 54 35 5 4 0 0 98
number right: 24 21 3 3 0 0 51
number expected: 29.9 22.4 3.8 3.4 0.0 0.0 59.4
right/expected: 0.80 0.94 0.80 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.86
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 53 43 7 1 0 0 104
number right: 33 26 5 0 0 0 64
number expected: 29.2 27.1 5.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 62.5
right/expected: 1.13 0.96 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.02
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 34 25 2 3 0 0 64
number right: 22 14 1 3 0 0 40
number expected: 18.3 15.9 1.6 2.5 0.0 0.0 38.3
right/expected: 1.20 0.88 0.63 1.19 0.00 0.00 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net