All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 53 125 80 8 0 0 266
number right: 24 80 54 8 0 0 166
number expected: 29.7 80.8 60.2 6.6 0.0 0.0 177.2
right/expected: 0.81 0.99 0.90 1.22 0.00 0.00 0.94
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 22 43 30 2 0 0 97
number right: 12 27 21 2 0 0 62
number expected: 12.3 27.7 22.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 64.1
right/expected: 0.98 0.97 0.94 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.97
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 18 48 36 3 0 0 105
number right: 7 33 23 3 0 0 66
number expected: 10.1 31.1 27.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 70.9
right/expected: 0.69 1.06 0.85 1.24 0.00 0.00 0.93
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 13 34 14 3 0 0 64
number right: 5 20 10 3 0 0 38
number expected: 7.3 21.9 10.5 2.5 0.0 0.0 42.2
right/expected: 0.68 0.91 0.95 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.90
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net