All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 101 127 32 6 0 0 266
number right: 58 84 23 3 0 0 168
number expected: 56.0 80.4 23.8 4.9 0.0 0.0 165.1
right/expected: 1.04 1.04 0.97 0.61 0.00 0.00 1.02
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 43 37 15 3 0 0 98
number right: 27 30 9 2 0 0 68
number expected: 23.9 23.5 11.1 2.5 0.0 0.0 60.9
right/expected: 1.13 1.28 0.81 0.81 0.00 0.00 1.12
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 35 59 9 1 0 0 104
number right: 16 36 7 1 0 0 60
number expected: 19.1 37.5 6.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 64.0
right/expected: 0.84 0.96 1.06 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.94
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 23 31 8 2 0 0 64
number right: 15 18 7 0 0 0 40
number expected: 12.9 19.5 6.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 40.1
right/expected: 1.16 0.92 1.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net