All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 34 180 27 25 0 0 266
number right: 21 109 21 20 0 0 171
number expected: 18.9 112.3 20.5 20.7 0.0 0.0 172.4
right/expected: 1.11 0.97 1.02 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.99
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 13 63 9 12 0 0 97
number right: 7 37 5 10 0 0 59
number expected: 7.2 39.5 6.8 9.9 0.0 0.0 63.5
right/expected: 0.97 0.94 0.73 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.93
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 13 72 12 8 0 0 105
number right: 10 49 11 6 0 0 76
number expected: 7.3 44.8 9.1 6.6 0.0 0.0 67.7
right/expected: 1.38 1.09 1.21 0.91 0.00 0.00 1.12
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 8 45 6 5 0 0 64
number right: 4 23 5 4 0 0 36
number expected: 4.5 28.0 4.6 4.2 0.0 0.0 41.2
right/expected: 0.90 0.82 1.10 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net