All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 39 173 31 25 0 0 268
number right: 22 106 17 23 0 0 168
number expected: 21.5 107.2 23.1 20.8 0.0 0.0 172.6
right/expected: 1.02 0.99 0.74 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.97
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 13 66 11 9 0 0 99
number right: 8 39 5 9 0 0 61
number expected: 7.2 41.0 8.2 7.5 0.0 0.0 63.8
right/expected: 1.12 0.95 0.61 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.96
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 13 68 18 6 0 0 105
number right: 6 44 11 6 0 0 67
number expected: 7.2 42.0 13.5 5.0 0.0 0.0 67.7
right/expected: 0.84 1.05 0.82 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.99
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 13 39 2 10 0 0 64
number right: 8 23 1 8 0 0 40
number expected: 7.2 24.1 1.4 8.3 0.0 0.0 41.1
right/expected: 1.11 0.95 0.71 0.96 0.00 0.00 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net