All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 93 134 26 32 0 0 285
number right: 46 69 19 25 0 0 159
number expected: 52.1 84.0 19.5 26.7 0.0 0.0 182.3
right/expected: 0.88 0.82 0.97 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.87
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 37 36 14 12 0 0 99
number right: 18 20 11 9 0 0 58
number expected: 20.8 22.5 10.4 10.0 0.0 0.0 63.8
right/expected: 0.86 0.89 1.05 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.91
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 26 59 9 11 0 0 105
number right: 12 26 6 8 0 0 52
number expected: 14.5 36.9 6.9 9.1 0.0 0.0 67.3
right/expected: 0.83 0.70 0.88 0.88 0.00 0.00 0.77
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 30 39 3 9 0 0 81
number right: 16 23 2 8 0 0 49
number expected: 16.8 24.6 2.2 7.6 0.0 0.0 51.2
right/expected: 0.95 0.94 0.89 1.06 0.00 0.00 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net