All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 54 89 71 41 4 0 259
number right: 30 59 46 29 2 0 166
number expected: 30.3 57.5 54.0 34.3 3.6 0.0 179.7
right/expected: 0.99 1.03 0.85 0.85 0.55 0.00 0.92
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 19 48 35 25 4 0 131
number right: 10 36 25 15 2 0 88
number expected: 10.7 31.1 26.7 20.9 3.6 0.0 93.0
right/expected: 0.94 1.16 0.94 0.72 0.55 0.00 0.95
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 19 23 19 6 0 0 67
number right: 12 15 9 5 0 0 41
number expected: 10.7 14.8 14.4 5.0 0.0 0.0 44.9
right/expected: 1.12 1.01 0.62 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.91
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 16 18 17 10 0 0 61
number right: 8 8 12 9 0 0 37
number expected: 8.9 11.6 12.9 8.4 0.0 0.0 41.8
right/expected: 0.90 0.69 0.93 1.08 0.00 0.00 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net