All games forecast probabilities 50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all total games: 54 89 71 41 4 0 259 number right: 30 59 46 29 2 0 166 number expected: 30.3 57.5 54.0 34.3 3.6 0.0 179.7 right/expected: 0.99 1.03 0.85 0.85 0.55 0.00 0.92 Breakdown by Division and Conference: Division games forecast probabilities 50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all total games: 19 48 35 25 4 0 131 number right: 10 36 25 15 2 0 88 number expected: 10.7 31.1 26.7 20.9 3.6 0.0 93.0 right/expected: 0.94 1.16 0.94 0.72 0.55 0.00 0.95 Non-Division games forecast probabilities 50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all total games: 19 23 19 6 0 0 67 number right: 12 15 9 5 0 0 41 number expected: 10.7 14.8 14.4 5.0 0.0 0.0 44.9 right/expected: 1.12 1.01 0.62 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.91 Non-Conference games forecast probabilities 50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all total games: 16 18 17 10 0 0 61 number right: 8 8 12 9 0 0 37 number expected: 8.9 11.6 12.9 8.4 0.0 0.0 41.8 right/expected: 0.90 0.69 0.93 1.08 0.00 0.00 0.89 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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