1999 NFL Forecast

• Week 4 (3-4 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 5 (10-11 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 6 (17-18 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 7 (24-25 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 8 (31 Oct - 1 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 9 (7-8 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 10 (14-15 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 11 (21-22 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 12 (25-29 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 13 (2-6 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 14 (9-13 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 15 (18-20 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 16 (24-27 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 17 (2-3 Jan): Forecast , Results
• Postseason 1 (8-9 Jan): Forecast (missed), Results (after-the-fact)
• Postseason 2 (15-16 Jan): Forecast , Results
• Postseason 3 (23 Jan): Forecast , Results
• Superbowl (30 Jan): Forecast , Results

7 Feb: Season end model rankings (NFL)

7 Feb: Average model rankings (NFL) (average rank for entire season)

1999 Model Performance:

                          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         36      71      59      33       6       0     205
number right:        22      45      37      25       6       0     135
number expected:   20.0    45.6    44.3    27.7     5.5     0.0   143.2
right/expected:    1.10    0.99    0.83    0.90    1.10    0.00    0.94

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net