2000 NFL Forecast

• Week 1 (3-4 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 2 (10-11 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 3 (17-18 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 4 (24-25 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 5 (1-2 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 6 (8-9 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 7 (15-16 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 8 (19-23 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 9 (29-30 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 10 (5-6 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 11 (12-13 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 12 (19-20 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 13 (23-26 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 14 (30 Nov - 4 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 15 (10-11 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 16 (16-18 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 17 (23-25 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Playoffs Week 1 (30-31 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Playoffs Week 2 (6-7 Jan): Forecast , Results
• Playoffs Week 3 (14 Jan): Forecast , Results
• Superbowl XXXV (28 Jan): Forecast , Results

7 Feb: Season end model rankings (NFL)

7 Feb: Average model rankings (NFL) (average rank for entire season)

2000 Model Performance:

                          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         44      96      65      46       8       0     259
number right:        22      50      42      39       6       0     159
number expected:   24.8    61.6    48.6    38.8     7.3     0.0   181.1
right/expected:    0.89    0.81    0.86    1.00    0.82    0.00    0.88

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net