All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 50 99 92 24 1 0 266
number right: 21 59 66 17 1 0 164
number expected: 28.2 63.4 69.5 20.1 0.9 0.0 182.0
right/expected: 0.74 0.93 0.95 0.85 1.10 0.00 0.90
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 15 34 37 9 1 0 96
number right: 6 16 27 8 1 0 58
number expected: 8.3 21.6 27.9 7.5 0.9 0.0 66.2
right/expected: 0.72 0.74 0.97 1.07 1.10 0.00 0.88
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 20 42 34 10 0 0 106
number right: 10 27 27 5 0 0 69
number expected: 11.3 26.9 25.8 8.4 0.0 0.0 72.4
right/expected: 0.88 1.00 1.04 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.95
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 15 23 21 5 0 0 64
number right: 5 16 12 4 0 0 37
number expected: 8.5 14.9 15.7 4.3 0.0 0.0 43.4
right/expected: 0.59 1.07 0.76 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.85
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net