2009 NFL Forecast

14 Feb 2010: Average model rankings (NFL) (average rank over entire season)

14 Feb 2010: Current model rankings (NFL) (rank at final week in the season)

2009 Model Performance:

All games                     forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        167      69      22       6       0       0     264
number right:       105      56      14       6       0       0     181
number expected:   96.2    43.9    16.2     5.0     0.0     0.0   161.2
right/expected:    1.09    1.28    0.87    1.20    0.00    0.00    1.12

Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games                forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         62      27       6       2       0       0      97
number right:        43      20       2       2       0       0      67
number expected:   35.7    17.3     4.4     1.7     0.0     0.0    59.1
right/expected:    1.20    1.16    0.45    1.18    0.00    0.00    1.13

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         68      24      10       2       0       0     104
number right:        37      20       7       2       0       0      66
number expected:   39.3    15.1     7.2     1.6     0.0     0.0    63.2
right/expected:    0.94    1.33    0.97    1.23    0.00    0.00    1.04

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         37      18       6       2       0       0      63
number right:        25      16       5       2       0       0      48
number expected:   21.3    11.5     4.5     1.7     0.0     0.0    39.0
right/expected:    1.18    1.39    1.12    1.18    0.00    0.00    1.23

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net