All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 95 131 32 8 0 0 266
number right: 38 79 23 7 0 0 147
number expected: 53.0 83.8 23.7 6.6 0.0 0.0 167.2
right/expected: 0.72 0.94 0.97 1.06 0.00 0.00 0.88
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 31 50 11 5 0 0 97
number right: 10 25 8 4 0 0 47
number expected: 17.1 32.1 8.3 4.1 0.0 0.0 61.6
right/expected: 0.58 0.78 0.97 0.97 0.00 0.00 0.76
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 41 51 11 2 0 0 105
number right: 19 31 8 2 0 0 60
number expected: 23.2 32.6 8.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 65.5
right/expected: 0.82 0.95 1.00 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.92
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 23 30 10 1 0 0 64
number right: 9 23 7 1 0 0 40
number expected: 12.7 19.1 7.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 40.1
right/expected: 0.71 1.20 0.94 1.23 0.00 0.00 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net