All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 167 69 22 6 0 0 264
number right: 105 56 14 6 0 0 181
number expected: 96.2 43.9 16.2 5.0 0.0 0.0 161.2
right/expected: 1.09 1.28 0.87 1.20 0.00 0.00 1.12
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 62 27 6 2 0 0 97
number right: 43 20 2 2 0 0 67
number expected: 35.7 17.3 4.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 59.1
right/expected: 1.20 1.16 0.45 1.18 0.00 0.00 1.13
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 68 24 10 2 0 0 104
number right: 37 20 7 2 0 0 66
number expected: 39.3 15.1 7.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 63.2
right/expected: 0.94 1.33 0.97 1.23 0.00 0.00 1.04
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 37 18 6 2 0 0 63
number right: 25 16 5 2 0 0 48
number expected: 21.3 11.5 4.5 1.7 0.0 0.0 39.0
right/expected: 1.18 1.39 1.12 1.18 0.00 0.00 1.23
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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