All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 105 62 55 44 0 0 266
number right: 59 43 39 35 0 0 176
number expected: 57.8 40.1 41.5 37.3 0.0 0.0 176.8
right/expected: 1.02 1.07 0.94 0.94 0.00 0.00 1.00
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 37 23 21 15 0 0 96
number right: 17 17 15 14 0 0 63
number expected: 20.3 14.7 15.9 12.6 0.0 0.0 63.6
right/expected: 0.84 1.16 0.94 1.11 0.00 0.00 0.99
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 42 27 19 18 0 0 106
number right: 23 18 13 13 0 0 67
number expected: 23.0 17.7 14.2 15.4 0.0 0.0 70.3
right/expected: 1.00 1.02 0.91 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.95
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 26 12 15 11 0 0 64
number right: 19 8 11 8 0 0 46
number expected: 14.5 7.7 11.4 9.3 0.0 0.0 42.9
right/expected: 1.31 1.03 0.97 0.86 0.00 0.00 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net