All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 40 129 53 39 7 0 268
number right: 22 74 39 31 6 0 172
number expected: 22.6 81.8 39.5 32.9 6.4 0.0 183.1
right/expected: 0.98 0.90 0.99 0.94 0.94 0.00 0.94
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 16 41 17 17 6 0 97
number right: 10 23 15 12 5 0 65
number expected: 9.1 25.9 12.6 14.3 5.5 0.0 67.2
right/expected: 1.10 0.89 1.19 0.84 0.91 0.00 0.97
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 15 53 23 13 1 0 105
number right: 8 30 17 12 1 0 68
number expected: 8.6 33.4 17.2 10.9 0.9 0.0 71.0
right/expected: 0.93 0.90 0.99 1.10 1.09 0.00 0.96
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 9 34 13 9 0 0 65
number right: 4 20 7 7 0 0 38
number expected: 5.0 21.9 9.8 7.6 0.0 0.0 44.2
right/expected: 0.81 0.91 0.72 0.92 0.00 0.00 0.86
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net