All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 62 85 80 36 3 0 266
number right: 35 46 54 27 2 0 164
number expected: 34.9 54.4 60.4 30.3 2.7 0.0 182.8
right/expected: 1.00 0.85 0.89 0.89 0.74 0.00 0.90
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 19 32 33 13 0 0 97
number right: 11 16 24 11 0 0 62
number expected: 10.7 20.5 24.8 10.9 0.0 0.0 67.0
right/expected: 1.03 0.78 0.97 1.01 0.00 0.00 0.93
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 26 39 23 17 0 0 105
number right: 15 25 16 13 0 0 69
number expected: 14.8 25.1 17.4 14.4 0.0 0.0 71.7
right/expected: 1.01 1.00 0.92 0.90 0.00 0.00 0.96
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 17 14 24 6 3 0 64
number right: 9 5 14 3 2 0 33
number expected: 9.3 8.9 18.2 5.0 2.7 0.0 44.1
right/expected: 0.96 0.56 0.77 0.60 0.74 0.00 0.75
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net