All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 59 162 24 20 2 0 267
number right: 29 105 19 16 2 0 171
number expected: 32.8 102.0 18.0 17.1 1.8 0.0 171.7
right/expected: 0.88 1.03 1.05 0.94 1.09 0.00 1.00
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 19 61 8 10 0 0 98
number right: 8 42 6 8 0 0 64
number expected: 10.6 38.5 6.0 8.5 0.0 0.0 63.6
right/expected: 0.76 1.09 1.00 0.94 0.00 0.00 1.01
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 27 61 10 5 1 0 104
number right: 13 35 10 4 1 0 63
number expected: 15.0 38.3 7.6 4.2 0.9 0.0 66.0
right/expected: 0.87 0.91 1.32 0.95 1.09 0.00 0.96
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 13 40 6 5 1 0 65
number right: 8 28 3 4 1 0 44
number expected: 7.3 25.2 4.5 4.4 0.9 0.0 42.2
right/expected: 1.10 1.11 0.67 0.92 1.10 0.00 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net