Bassett Football Model
The Bassett football model is a system for ranking the relative strengths
of football teams. A key feature of this model is that it recognizes
that if two teams could play more than once the same team would not
always win (there is an element of chance involved). The system is
based on a simple model of a football game. For a given match-up of
two teams, a number of model games are simulated by a computer and the
average scores and the percentage of times each team wins is computed.
Each week during the football season the best fit of offensive and
defensive strengths is found for each team consistent with the actual
scores. I do include considerations for home field advantage and for
the possibility that teams may score less than expected in a blow-out if
they choose to run out time instead of score more points in the latter
part of a game.
Attention: The Bassett Football Model is retiring
I will be handing off NFL to someone else, so NFL will continue.
There wll be no new forecasts, results or rankings for NCAA.
If you are looking for an alternative I recommend ThePredictionTracker
Another good source of ranking and prediction systems can be found by looking at those listed in the
College Football Ranking Comparasion
web page.
Final full season results before retiring the model:
2023 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)
- Week 0 (27 Aug):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 1 (31 Aug - 4 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 2 (7-10 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 3 (14-16 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 4 (21-24 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 5 (28-30 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 6 (4-7 Oct):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 7 (10-14 Oct):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 8 (17-21 Oct):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 9 (24-29 Oct):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 10 (31 Oct - 4 Nov):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 11 (7-11 Nov):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 12 (14-19 Nov):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 13 (21-25 Nov):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 14 (2 Dec):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 15 (8-9 Dec):
Forecast ,
Results
- Bowl Games:
Forecast ,
Results
- FBS & FCS Championship Games:
Forecast ,
Results ,
Bassett Model rankings:
The Stephenson Earned Rank shows what a team has earned from its wins.
It ranks by how much better a given team's winning record is when compared against how
all other teams would have faired if they had played the same schedule.
(Available after the 5th week in the season.)
The Power Rankings measure the strength of each team by how well they have played on average,
going by point performance.
18 Jan 2024: Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(ranked by team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)
2023 NFL Forecast
- Week 1 (7-11 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 2 (14-18 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 3 (21-25 Sep):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 4 (28 Sep - 2 Oct):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 5 (5-9 Oct):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 6 (12-16 Oct):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 7 (19-23 Oct):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 8 (26-30 Oct):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 9 (2-6 Nov):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 10 (9-13 Nov):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 11 (16-20 Nov):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 12 (23-27 Nov):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 13 (30 Nov - 4 Dec):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 14 (7-11 Dec):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 15 (14-18 Dec):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 16 (21-25 Dec):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 17 (28-31 Dec):
Forecast ,
Results
- Week 18 (7 Jan):
Forecast ,
Results
- Postseason: Wild Card (13-14 Jan):
Forecast ,
Results
- Postseason: Divisional (20-21 Jan):
Forecast ,
Results
- Postseason: Conference (28 Jan):
Forecast ,
Results
- Super Bowl (11 Feb):
Forecast
Please email comments or questions to
bfm@BassettFootball.net