All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 44 163 29 31 0 0 267
number right: 24 104 21 20 0 0 169
number expected: 25.0 101.4 21.8 26.3 0.0 0.0 174.6
right/expected: 0.96 1.03 0.96 0.76 0.00 0.00 0.97
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 20 54 8 15 0 0 97
number right: 6 32 4 8 0 0 50
number expected: 11.5 33.7 6.0 12.8 0.0 0.0 64.0
right/expected: 0.52 0.95 0.67 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.78
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 17 66 11 11 0 0 105
number right: 11 41 11 8 0 0 71
number expected: 9.5 40.8 8.4 9.3 0.0 0.0 68.0
right/expected: 1.15 1.01 1.31 0.86 0.00 0.00 1.04
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 7 43 10 5 0 0 65
number right: 7 31 6 4 0 0 48
number expected: 4.0 26.8 7.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 42.6
right/expected: 1.74 1.16 0.81 0.94 0.00 0.00 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net