All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 44 152 33 38 0 0 267
number right: 24 89 22 32 0 0 167
number expected: 24.3 95.0 24.9 32.0 0.0 0.0 176.2
right/expected: 0.99 0.94 0.88 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.95
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 20 52 10 14 0 0 96
number right: 14 28 6 11 0 0 59
number expected: 11.2 32.6 7.4 11.8 0.0 0.0 62.9
right/expected: 1.26 0.86 0.81 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.94
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 16 62 12 16 0 0 106
number right: 5 42 7 16 0 0 70
number expected: 8.8 38.5 9.1 13.4 0.0 0.0 69.8
right/expected: 0.57 1.09 0.77 1.19 0.00 0.00 1.00
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 8 38 11 8 0 0 65
number right: 5 19 9 5 0 0 38
number expected: 4.4 24.0 8.4 6.7 0.0 0.0 43.5
right/expected: 1.13 0.79 1.07 0.75 0.00 0.00 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net