All games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 90 132 47 14 0 0 283
number right: 43 77 31 11 0 0 162
number expected: 50.1 83.5 34.9 11.7 0.0 0.0 180.1
right/expected: 0.86 0.92 0.89 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.90
Breakdown by Division and Conference:
Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 31 47 17 5 0 0 100
number right: 17 25 13 3 0 0 58
number expected: 17.0 29.8 12.7 4.2 0.0 0.0 63.7
right/expected: 1.00 0.84 1.03 0.72 0.00 0.00 0.91
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 36 45 18 4 0 0 103
number right: 17 27 9 4 0 0 57
number expected: 20.1 28.4 13.3 3.3 0.0 0.0 65.1
right/expected: 0.85 0.95 0.68 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.88
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 23 40 12 5 0 0 80
number right: 9 25 9 4 0 0 47
number expected: 12.9 25.3 8.9 4.2 0.0 0.0 51.3
right/expected: 0.70 0.99 1.02 0.95 0.00 0.00 0.92
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net