2000 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

• Preseason (26-27 Aug): Forecast , Results
• Week 1 (31 Aug - 4 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 2 (7-9 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 3 (14-16 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 4 (21-23 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 5 (28-30 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 6 (5-7 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 7 (12-14 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 8 (19-20 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 9 (26-28 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 10 (2-4 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 11 (9-11 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 12 (16-18 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 13 (22-25 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 14 (2 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 15 (9 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Bowl Games: Forecast , Results

6 Jan: Season end model rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)

6 Jan: Average model rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA) (average rank for entire season)

2000 Model Performance:

                          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        136     267     351     296     231       0    1281
number right:        76     162     256     248     218       0     960
number expected:   75.9   172.3   266.6   252.0   211.5     0.0   978.2
right/expected:    1.00    0.94    0.96    0.98    1.03    0.00    0.98

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net