All Div I games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 119 279 329 348 179 0 1254
number right: 61 174 247 298 167 0 947
number expected: 66.5 180.4 250.5 296.9 163.8 0.0 958.1
right/expected: 0.92 0.96 0.99 1.00 1.02 0.00 0.99
Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 78 167 213 200 118 0 776
number right: 42 100 158 168 107 0 575
number expected: 43.9 108.1 162.5 170.4 108.0 0.0 592.9
right/expected: 0.96 0.93 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.00 0.97
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 36 104 103 118 55 0 416
number right: 15 68 79 103 55 0 320
number expected: 19.7 67.2 78.1 100.8 50.3 0.0 316.1
right/expected: 0.76 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.09 0.00 1.01
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 5 8 13 30 6 0 62
number right: 4 6 10 27 5 0 52
number expected: 2.9 5.2 9.9 25.7 5.5 0.0 49.1
right/expected: 1.39 1.16 1.01 1.05 0.91 0.00 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net