2004 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Bassett Model rankings:

The Stephenson Earned Rank shows what a team has earned from its wins. It ranks by how much better a given team's winning record is when compared against how all other teams would have faired if they had played the same schedule. The Power Rankings measure the strength of each team by how well they have played on average, going by point performance. The Current Model Power Rankings are the best indicator of how well a team will play in the future.

01 Jan 2005: Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

01 Jan 2005: Average Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(average power ranking for entire season)

01 Jan 2005: Final Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(power ranking at final week of the season)

2004 Model Performance: 

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        143     272     314     351     219       0    1299
number right:        74     138     213     291     204       0     920
number expected:   79.3   175.1   238.3   300.1   200.5     0.0   993.2
right/expected:    0.93    0.79    0.89    0.97    1.02    0.00    0.93

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        105     178     192     224     142       0     841
number right:        56      84     135     182     129       0     586
number expected:   58.0   114.7   145.8   191.4   130.0     0.0   639.9
right/expected:    0.97    0.73    0.93    0.95    0.99    0.00    0.92

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         34      81     103     119      66       0     403
number right:        18      48      65     102      64       0     297
number expected:   19.0    52.1    78.0   101.8    60.4     0.0   311.3
right/expected:    0.95    0.92    0.83    1.00    1.06    0.00    0.95

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:          4      13      19       8      11       0      55
number right:         0       6      13       7      11       0      37
number expected:    2.3     8.4    14.4     6.9    10.0     0.0    42.0
right/expected:    0.00    0.72    0.90    1.02    1.10    0.00    0.88

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net