2019 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Bassett Model rankings:

The Stephenson Earned Rank shows what a team has earned from its wins. It ranks by how much better a given team's winning record is when compared against how all other teams would have faired if they had played the same schedule. (Available after the 5th week in the season.) The Power Rankings measure the strength of each team by how well they have played on average, going by point performance. The Current Model Power Rankings are the best indicator of how well a team will play in the future.

18 Jan 2020: Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

18 Jan 2020: Average Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(average power ranking for entire season)


(power ranking at current week in the season)
(power ranking at final week of the season)

2019 Model Performance: 

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        166     774     173     214     225       0    1552
number right:        91     527     136     186     207       0    1147
number expected:   91.3   506.3   129.0   183.8   210.8     0.0  1121.2
right/expected:    1.00    1.04    1.05    1.01    0.98    0.00    1.02

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         81     486     121     159     168       0    1015
number right:        43     312      91     137     152       0     735
number expected:   44.2   316.8    90.5   136.5   157.4     0.0   745.4
right/expected:    0.97    0.98    1.01    1.00    0.97    0.00    0.99

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         64     224      39      45      51       0     423
number right:        35     159      34      39      49       0     316
number expected:   35.5   147.4    28.9    38.8    47.8     0.0   298.3
right/expected:    0.99    1.08    1.18    1.01    1.02    0.00    1.06

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         21      64      13      10       6       0     114
number right:        13      56      11      10       6       0      96
number expected:   11.6    42.1     9.6     8.6     5.6     0.0    77.5
right/expected:    1.12    1.33    1.15    1.17    1.07    0.00    1.24

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net