2022 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Bassett Model rankings:

The Stephenson Earned Rank shows what a team has earned from its wins. It ranks by how much better a given team's winning record is when compared against how all other teams would have faired if they had played the same schedule. (Available after the 5th week in the season.) The Power Rankings measure the strength of each team by how well they have played on average, going by point performance. The Current Model Power Rankings are the best indicator of how well a team will play in the future.

Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

Average Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(average power ranking for entire season)


(power ranking at current week in the season)
(power ranking at final week of the season)

2022 Model Performance: 

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        231     420     425     385      58       0    1519
number right:       117     271     311     336      55       0    1090
number expected:  127.5   272.8   309.1   334.3    53.1     0.0  1096.9
right/expected:    0.92    0.99    1.01    1.00    1.04    0.00    0.99

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        143     236     274     267      41       0     961
number right:        70     136     186     234      39       0     665
number expected:   79.0   153.4   199.6   232.0    37.5     0.0   701.4
right/expected:    0.89    0.89    0.93    1.01    1.04    0.00    0.95

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         70     138     117      98      16       0     439
number right:        39      97      91      84      15       0     326
number expected:   38.5    89.5    84.8    85.2    14.7     0.0   312.7
right/expected:    1.01    1.08    1.07    0.99    1.02    0.00    1.04

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         18      46      34      20       1       0     119
number right:         8      38      34      18       1       0      99
number expected:   10.0    30.0    24.7    17.2     0.9     0.0    82.8
right/expected:    0.80    1.27    1.38    1.05    1.10    0.00    1.20

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net