2018 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

• Week 0 (25 Aug): Forecast , Results
• Week 1 (30 Aug - 3 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 2 (6-8 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 3 (13-15 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 4 (20-22 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 5 (27-29 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 6 (4-6 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 7 (9-13 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 8 (18-20 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 9 (23-27 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 10 (30 Oct - 3 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 11 (6-10 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 12 (13-17 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 13 (20-24 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 14 (30 Nov - 1 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 15 (8 Dec + preliminary bowl game forecast): Forecast , Results
• Bowl Games: Forecast , Results
• FBS & FCS Championship Games: Forecast , Results

Bassett Model rankings:

15 Jan 2019: Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

15 Jan 2019: Average Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(average power ranking for entire season)

15 Jan 2019: Current Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(power ranking at current week in the season)

2018 Model Performance:

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        165     721     158     233     222       0    1499
number right:        72     464     126     195     210       0    1067
number expected:   90.6   471.2   118.0   199.4   208.2     0.0  1087.3
right/expected:    0.79    0.98    1.07    0.98    1.01    0.00    0.98

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         86     434     119     174     164       0     977
number right:        36     252      93     139     154       0     674
number expected:   47.3   283.1    89.1   149.1   153.8     0.0   722.3
right/expected:    0.76    0.89    1.04    0.93    1.00    0.00    0.93

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         66     212      32      48      52       0     410
number right:        32     150      26      46      50       0     304
number expected:   36.4   138.5    23.8    40.9    48.8     0.0   288.4
right/expected:    0.88    1.08    1.09    1.12    1.02    0.00    1.05

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         13      75       7      11       6       0     112
number right:         4      62       7      10       6       0      89
number expected:    7.0    49.6     5.2     9.3     5.6     0.0    76.6
right/expected:    0.58    1.25    1.36    1.07    1.08    0.00    1.16

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net