1999 College Football Forecast

• Preseason (28-29 Aug): Forecast , Results
• Week 1 (2-6 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 2 (9-11 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 3 (16-19 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 4 (23-25 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 5 (30 Sep - 2 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 6 (7-9 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 7 (14-16 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 8 (22-23 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 9 (30 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 10 (4-6 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 11 (11-13 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 12 (19-20 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 13 (25-27 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 14 (4 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 15 (11 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Bowl Games: Forecast , Results

10 Jan: Season end model rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)

10 Jan: Average model rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA) (average rank for entire season)

1999 Model Performance:

                          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        153     282     360     303     172       0    1270
number right:        96     178     260     248     159       0     941
number expected:   85.2   182.5   271.9   258.8   157.7     0.0   956.0
right/expected:    1.13    0.98    0.96    0.96    1.01    0.00    0.98

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net