2011 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Bassett Model rankings:

The Stephenson Earned Rank shows what a team has earned from its wins. It ranks by how much better a given team's winning record is when compared against how all other teams would have faired if they had played the same schedule. (Available after the 5th week in the season.) The Power Rankings measure the strength of each team by how well they have played on average, going by point performance. The Current Model Power Rankings are the best indicator of how well a team will play in the future.

9 Jan 2012: Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

9 Jan 2012: Average Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(average power ranking for entire season)

9 Jan 2012: Current Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(power ranking at final week of the season)

2011 Model Performance: 

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        318     261     314     502      30       0    1425
number right:       151     179     234     433      30       0    1027
number expected:  178.5   169.4   236.5   425.4    27.2     0.0  1037.0
right/expected:    0.85    1.06    0.99    1.02    1.10    0.00    0.99

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        217     171     207     316      22       0     933
number right:       108     111     152     260      22       0     653
number expected:  121.9   111.0   155.3   268.5    20.0     0.0   676.5
right/expected:    0.89    1.00    0.98    0.97    1.10    0.00    0.97

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         94      81      94     121       7       0     397
number right:        41      60      70     109       7       0     287
number expected:   52.8    52.6    71.3   102.1     6.4     0.0   285.1
right/expected:    0.78    1.14    0.98    1.07    1.10    0.00    1.01

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:          7       9      13      65       1       0      95
number right:         2       8      12      64       1       0      87
number expected:    3.8     5.9     9.9    54.9     0.9     0.0    75.3
right/expected:    0.52    1.37    1.22    1.17    1.10    0.00    1.15

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net