2013 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

• Week 1 (29 Aug - 2 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 2 (5-7 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 3 (12-14 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 4 (19-21 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 5 (26-28 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 6 (3-5 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 7 (10-12 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 8 (15-19 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 9 (22-26 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 10 (30 Oct - 2 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 11 (5-9 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 12 (12-16 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 13 (19-23 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 14 (26-30 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 15 (5-7 Dec): Forecast (updated 3 Dec), Results
• Week 16 (14 Dec) + preliminary bowl games: Forecast , Results
• Bowl Games: Forecast (updated 22 Dec), Results

Bassett Model rankings:

7 Jan 2014: Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

7 Jan 2014: Average Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(average power ranking for entire season)

7 Jan 2014: Current Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(power ranking at final week of the season)

2013 Model Performance:

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        162     641     182     495      15       0    1495
number right:        86     399     147     425      15       0    1072
number expected:   89.0   416.9   136.8   424.1    13.6     0.0  1080.4
right/expected:    0.97    0.96    1.07    1.00    1.11    0.00    0.99

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         94     368     118     367       7       0     954
number right:        48     220      96     310       7       0     681
number expected:   52.0   239.9    89.0   314.8     6.3     0.0   702.0
right/expected:    0.92    0.92    1.08    0.98    1.10    0.00    0.97

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         53     213      49     105       7       0     427
number right:        27     142      40      93       7       0     309
number expected:   28.8   138.5    36.5    89.9     6.3     0.0   300.0
right/expected:    0.94    1.02    1.10    1.04    1.11    0.00    1.03

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         15      60      15      23       1       0     114
number right:        11      37      11      22       1       0      82
number expected:    8.2    38.5    11.3    19.5     0.9     0.0    78.4
right/expected:    1.34    0.96    0.97    1.13    1.11    0.00    1.05

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net