2015 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

• Week 1 (29 Aug): Forecast , Results
• Week 2 (3-7 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 3 (10-12 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 4 (17-19 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 5 (24-26 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 6 (1-3 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 7 (8-10 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 8 (13-17 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 9 (20-24 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 10 (29-31 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 11 (3-7 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 12 (10-14 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 13 (17-21 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 14 (24-28 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 15 (4-5 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 16 (11-12 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Bowl Games: Forecast , Results
• FBS & FCS Championship Games (9 & 12 Jan): Forecast , Results

Bassett Model rankings:

12 Jan 2016: Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

12 Jan 2016: Average Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(average power ranking for entire season)

12 Jan 2016: Current Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(power ranking at final week of the season)

2015 Model Performance:

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        102     574     160     387     270       0    1493
number right:        54     389     121     321     252       0    1137
number expected:   56.5   377.1   119.5   333.6   248.9     0.0  1135.5
right/expected:    0.96    1.03    1.01    0.96    1.01    0.00    1.00

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         58     378     102     278     188       0    1004
number right:        31     251      68     223     174       0     747
number expected:   31.8   248.6    76.5   240.2   173.9     0.0   770.9
right/expected:    0.97    1.01    0.89    0.93    1.00    0.00    0.97

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         29     164      45      81      65       0     384
number right:        16     112      41      73      63       0     305
number expected:   16.2   107.5    33.3    69.3    59.6     0.0   286.0
right/expected:    0.99    1.04    1.23    1.05    1.06    0.00    1.07

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         15      32      13      28      17       0     105
number right:         7      26      12      25      15       0      85
number expected:    8.5    21.0     9.7    24.0    15.4     0.0    78.6
right/expected:    0.83    1.24    1.23    1.04    0.97    0.00    1.08

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net