All Div I games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 223 282 360 492 86 0 1443
number right: 106 161 270 420 83 0 1040
number expected: 123.8 181.2 272.6 419.5 78.3 0.0 1075.5
right/expected: 0.86 0.89 0.99 1.00 1.06 0.00 0.97
Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 155 196 271 286 52 0 960
number right: 73 110 204 238 50 0 675
number expected: 85.6 125.7 205.7 243.4 47.3 0.0 707.8
right/expected: 0.85 0.87 0.99 0.98 1.06 0.00 0.95
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 59 70 79 146 23 0 377
number right: 27 41 57 124 22 0 271
number expected: 33.2 45.0 59.4 124.4 20.9 0.0 282.8
right/expected: 0.81 0.91 0.96 1.00 1.05 0.00 0.96
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 9 16 10 60 11 0 106
number right: 6 10 9 58 11 0 94
number expected: 5.2 10.5 7.5 51.8 10.0 0.0 84.9
right/expected: 1.16 0.96 1.20 1.12 1.10 0.00 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net