2021 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Bassett Model rankings:

The Stephenson Earned Rank shows what a team has earned from its wins. It ranks by how much better a given team's winning record is when compared against how all other teams would have faired if they had played the same schedule. (Available after the 5th week in the season.) The Power Rankings measure the strength of each team by how well they have played on average, going by point performance. The Current Model Power Rankings are the best indicator of how well a team will play in the future.

Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

18 Jan 2020: Average Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(average power ranking for entire season)


(power ranking at current week in the season)
(power ranking at final week of the season)

2021 Model Performance: 

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        166     775     136     229     207       0    1513
number right:        86     503     109     191     191       0    1080
number expected:   91.1   506.4   101.9   196.7   193.9     0.0  1089.8
right/expected:    0.94    0.99    1.07    0.97    0.99    0.00    0.99

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        103     473      88     183     146       0     993
number right:        50     278      67     153     133       0     681
number expected:   56.7   307.9    66.2   157.6   136.3     0.0   724.6
right/expected:    0.88    0.90    1.01    0.97    0.98    0.00    0.94

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         46     232      35      42      49       0     404
number right:        27     168      30      34      47       0     306
number expected:   25.0   152.2    26.1    35.8    46.3     0.0   285.4
right/expected:    1.08    1.10    1.15    0.95    1.01    0.00    1.07

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         17      70      13       4      12       0     116
number right:         9      57      12       4      11       0      93
number expected:    9.4    46.4     9.6     3.4    11.2     0.0    79.9
right/expected:    0.96    1.23    1.26    1.19    0.98    0.00    1.16

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net