2021 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

2021 Model Performance:

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        166     775     136     229     207       0    1513
number right:        86     503     109     191     191       0    1080
number expected:   91.1   506.4   101.9   196.7   193.9     0.0  1089.8
right/expected:    0.94    0.99    1.07    0.97    0.99    0.00    0.99

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        103     473      88     183     146       0     993
number right:        50     278      67     153     133       0     681
number expected:   56.7   307.9    66.2   157.6   136.3     0.0   724.6
right/expected:    0.88    0.90    1.01    0.97    0.98    0.00    0.94

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         46     232      35      42      49       0     404
number right:        27     168      30      34      47       0     306
number expected:   25.0   152.2    26.1    35.8    46.3     0.0   285.4
right/expected:    1.08    1.10    1.15    0.95    1.01    0.00    1.07

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         17      70      13       4      12       0     116
number right:         9      57      12       4      11       0      93
number expected:    9.4    46.4     9.6     3.4    11.2     0.0    79.9
right/expected:    0.96    1.23    1.26    1.19    0.98    0.00    1.16

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)


Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net