All Div I games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 154 308 372 371 186 0 1391
number right: 83 187 271 303 182 0 1026
number expected: 85.2 198.8 283.0 315.3 170.3 0.0 1052.5
right/expected: 0.97 0.94 0.96 0.96 1.07 0.00 0.97
Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 89 191 215 217 105 0 817
number right: 43 125 152 171 102 0 593
number expected: 49.2 123.1 163.1 184.6 96.1 0.0 615.9
right/expected: 0.87 1.02 0.93 0.93 1.06 0.00 0.96
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 59 110 140 129 71 0 509
number right: 36 57 104 109 70 0 376
number expected: 32.7 71.0 106.9 109.2 65.1 0.0 384.9
right/expected: 1.10 0.80 0.97 1.00 1.08 0.00 0.98
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 6 7 17 25 10 0 65
number right: 4 5 15 23 10 0 57
number expected: 3.3 4.6 13.0 21.5 9.1 0.0 51.6
right/expected: 1.20 1.08 1.16 1.07 1.10 0.00 1.11
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net