2003 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

• Preseason (23 Aug): Forecast , Results
• Week 1 (28 Aug - 1 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 2 (4-6 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 3 (11-13 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 4 (18-20 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 5 (25-27 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 6 (30 Sep - 4 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 7 (9-11 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 8 (16-18 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 9 (22-25 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 10 (30 Oct - 1 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 11 (4-8 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 12 (12-15 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 13 (19-22 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 14 (25-29 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 15 (4-6 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 16 (13 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Bowl Games: Forecast , Results

NEW: 6 Jan 2004: Stephenson earned rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

6 Jan 2004: Average model power rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(average power ranking for entire season)

6 Jan 2004: Current model power rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(rank at final week of the season)

2003 Model Performance:

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        140     276     352     382     236       0    1386
number right:        84     158     240     325     226       0    1033
number expected:   77.8   178.5   267.4   325.9   216.2     0.0  1065.9
right/expected:    1.08    0.89    0.90    1.00    1.05    0.00    0.97

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         94     171     202     242     140       0     849
number right:        60     103     141     201     132       0     637
number expected:   52.3   110.4   154.0   206.5   128.3     0.0   651.5
right/expected:    1.15    0.93    0.92    0.97    1.03    0.00    0.98

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         40      94     132     116      84       0     466
number right:        19      50      87     102      82       0     340
number expected:   22.4    61.0    99.7    99.0    77.0     0.0   359.0
right/expected:    0.85    0.82    0.87    1.03    1.07    0.00    0.95

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:          6      11      18      24      12       0      71
number right:         5       5      12      22      12       0      56
number expected:    3.2     7.2    13.6    20.4    10.9     0.0    55.3
right/expected:    1.54    0.70    0.88    1.08    1.10    0.00    1.01

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net