All Div I games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 80 303 61 65 73 0 582
number right: 42 200 48 54 68 0 412
number expected: 44.2 197.6 45.9 55.9 68.4 0.0 412.0
right/expected: 0.95 1.01 1.05 0.97 0.99 0.00 1.00
Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 63 227 45 49 55 0 439
number right: 31 147 35 42 51 0 306
number expected: 34.7 148.0 33.8 42.1 51.5 0.0 310.1
right/expected: 0.89 0.99 1.03 1.00 0.99 0.00 0.99
Non-Conference games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 11 59 13 11 15 0 109
number right: 7 38 10 7 14 0 76
number expected: 6.2 38.4 9.8 9.5 14.2 0.0 78.0
right/expected: 1.14 0.99 1.02 0.74 0.99 0.00 0.97
Non-Division games forecast probabilities
50-59% 60-69% 70-79% 80-89% 90-99% 100% all
total games: 6 17 3 5 3 0 34
number right: 4 15 3 5 3 0 30
number expected: 3.3 11.2 2.3 4.3 2.8 0.0 23.9
right/expected: 1.20 1.34 1.32 1.15 1.07 0.00 1.25
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net