2005 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Bassett Model rankings:

The Stephenson Earned Rank shows what a team has earned from its wins. It ranks by how much better a given team's winning record is when compared against how all other teams would have faired if they had played the same schedule. (Available after the 5th week in the season.) The Power Rankings measure the strength of each team by how well they have played on average, going by point performance. The Current Model Power Rankings are the best indicator of how well a team will play in the future.

17 Jan 2006: Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

17 Jan 2006: Average Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(average power ranking for entire season)

17 Jan 2006: Final Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(power ranking at final week of the season)

2005 Model Performance: 

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        206     414     394     245      44       0    1303
number right:       107     272     300     215      42       0     936
number expected:  114.4   266.7   298.0   206.7    40.2     0.0   925.9
right/expected:    0.94    1.02    1.01    1.04    1.05    0.00    1.01

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        128     271     284     157      22       0     862
number right:        68     168     199     136      21       0     592
number expected:   71.3   174.3   214.5   132.7    20.1     0.0   612.8
right/expected:    0.95    0.96    0.93    1.03    1.05    0.00    0.97

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         70     133     100      66      18       0     387
number right:        37      95      91      58      17       0     298
number expected:   38.7    86.0    76.0    55.3    16.4     0.0   272.5
right/expected:    0.96    1.10    1.20    1.05    1.04    0.00    1.09

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:          8      10      10      22       4       0      54
number right:         2       9      10      21       4       0      46
number expected:    4.4     6.5     7.5    18.7     3.7     0.0    40.6
right/expected:    0.46    1.39    1.34    1.13    1.09    0.00    1.13

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net