2014 College Football Forecast (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

• Week 1 (23 Aug): Forecast , Results
• Week 2 (27-31 Aug): Forecast , Results
• Week 3 (1-6 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 4 (11-13 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 5 (18-20 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 6 (25-27 Sep): Forecast , Results
• Week 7 (2-4 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 8 (9-11 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 9 (14-18 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 10 (21-25 Oct): Forecast , Results
• Week 11 (30 Oct - 1 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 12 (4-8 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 13 (11-15 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 14 (18-22 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 15 (25-29 Nov): Forecast , Results
• Week 16 (4-6 Dec): Forecast , Results
• Week 17 (13 Dec) + preliminary bowl games: Forecast , Results
• Bowl Games: Forecast , Results
• FBS & FCS Championship Games (10-12 Jan): Forecast , Results

Bassett Model rankings:

19 Jan 2015: Stephenson Earned Rank (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(Team wins subtracted by average number of wins if all other teams played their schedule as simulated by the Bassett Football Model)

19 Jan 2015: Average Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(i.e. Average model rankings from 2014)

19 Jan 2015: Current Model Power Rankings (NCAA Div I & IAA)
(power ranking at final week of the season)

2014 Model Performance:

All Div I games               forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        195     477     267     336     243       0    1518
number right:       113     309     187     282     233       0    1124
number expected:  110.4   303.9   199.9   287.3   224.9     0.0  1126.3
right/expected:    1.02    1.02    0.94    0.98    1.04    0.00    1.00

Breakdown by Conference and Division:
Conference games              forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:        119     319     178     218     155       0     989
number right:        71     210     124     181     147       0     733
number expected:   67.1   203.2   133.1   186.1   143.5     0.0   733.0
right/expected:    1.06    1.03    0.93    0.97    1.02    0.00    1.00

Non-Conference games          forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:         67     125      79      92      57       0     420
number right:        38      78      55      78      56       0     305
number expected:   38.0    79.7    59.2    79.1    52.7     0.0   308.8
right/expected:    1.00    0.98    0.93    0.99    1.06    0.00    0.99

Non-Division games            forecast probabilities
                 50-59%  60-69%  70-79%  80-89%  90-99%    100%     all
total games:          9      33      10      26      31       0     109
number right:         4      21       8      23      30       0      86
number expected:    5.2    21.0     7.6    22.1    28.7     0.0    84.6
right/expected:    0.77    1.00    1.06    1.04    1.05    0.00    1.02

actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net